Bitcoin on its way to adulthood? Quiet at the end of 2025 predicts stability in Q1 2026

👋 Everyone who is holding on, are you still breathing?

Bitcoin in 2025 will likely see a spectacular year-end rally like the usual ones (Santa Rally) and instead showing calm movements. According to renowned investor Anthony Pompliano, this low volatility state is likely to prevent a major price drop in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026. Bitcoin's price has fallen 2.81% this year and is currently hovering around $88,920. However, considering that it has recorded an increase of over 300% over the past three years, perhaps it is surprisingly stable? This article will explain the background to this in an easy-to-understand manner, with a touch of humor. (Approximately 350 characters)

Bitcoin Avoids Traditional Year-End Rally, Signaling Stability in Q1, Anthony Pompliano's Analysis

Background and Issues

Well, let's start by looking back at Bitcoin in 2025, as if we were sitting next to each other at a cafe.Santa RallyHave you ever heard of "The Price of Bitcoin"? This is a phenomenon where stocks and virtual currencies soar during the Christmas season, as if Santa is giving them presents. However, Bitcoin in 2025 has missed this rally. The price is at $88,920, down from the beginning of the year.Down 2.81%Trading volume is also as lackluster as Christmas tree lights.

Beginners might think, "Huh, Bitcoin is weak!" However, according to Pompliano's analysis, this calm is actually a good sign. In past cycles, there was a pattern of a big rise at the end of the year and a sudden drop at the beginning of the new year (Drawdown) There were a lot of people who were like this. It's like drinking too much at a party at the end of the year and then having a hangover on New Year's Day. The idea is that the current low volatility (a state in which price fluctuations are small) may help avoid that hangover.

One issue is that investors are prone to short-term disappointment. There were predictions of a rise of over 100% by 2025, but in reality, it has only declined slightly. It's like the disappointment of a Christmas present you were hoping for, only to find it was socks. However, over the past three years,300% increaseWe are. Don't forget to think long term!

The core of the technology

Now onto the main topic! Let's break down how Pompliano analyzes Bitcoin's volatility (price fluctuations). First, what is volatility? It can be compared to the intensity of a roller coaster. In the past, Bitcoin was prone to drawdowns of over 80%, making riders' hearts race like they were on a thrilling thrill ride. But now, it's as stable as a leisurely Ferris wheel.

Click the image to enlarge.

Pompliano said low volatility in 2025 "is a sign ofblowoff top" is the result of avoiding a "top-top." A top-top is when the price rises sharply and inflates like a bubble. But when it bursts, it crashes. At a quiet end of the year like this, we try to limit that risk. Jokingly, it seems like Bitcoin has gone from a "wild youth" to a "calm adult"? Maybe it won't go crazy again.

From a tokenomics perspective, Bitcoin's supply is fixed (capped at 2100 million), and once demand stabilizes, so too will the price. Pompliano noted that a 70-80% drawdown in 2026 would be "very surprising" because the price is already suppressed.

Looking at this chart, it looks like a roller coaster ride before and a gentler ride now. In Pompliano's words, "Bitcoin's wild days are over." Interesting perspective, right?

Applications and Market Impact

So how does this low volatility affect the market? From a user perspective, it may make it easier to hold Bitcoin for the long term, like a piggy bank. Beginners often panic sell when prices fluctuate suddenly, right? That will be reduced.

From a developer's perspective, it's likely that more Bitcoin-based DeFi (decentralized finance) applications will be developed. It's like building a house in a calm area, not in a high-earthquake zone. Once it stabilizes, it will be easier to utilize Layer 2 solutions (Bitcoin scaling technology).

The impact on the market as a whole may be an increase in institutional investors. While there's a joke about Bitcoin becoming "uncool" due to Pompliano's analysis, it actually increases its credibility. Will it be treated as a stable asset like stocks? However, the cryptocurrency market is still volatile, so caution is advised.

A little humor: Once Bitcoin gets over its "midlife crisis" and becomes a laid-back old man, maybe we'll all be able to relate to it with ease (lol).

Actions by level

Here, we don't suggest buying, but rather actions to deepen your understanding. Beginners: First, look at the 1-year chart of Bitcoin using a chart tool (such as CoinMarketCap) and get a sense of its low volatility. Example: Imagine the small price fluctuations as calm waves.

Intermediate: Check out Pompliano's CNBC interview (search for it on YouTube). Learn what drawdowns mean and compare them to past cycles. Jokingly, visualize your portfolio shifting from a "roller coaster" to a "Ferris wheel."

Additionally, learn the basics of volatility through free blockchain courses (e.g., Coursera). When using overseas exchanges, Japanese residents face risks outside of legal protection, so we recommend starting with domestic exchanges.

Future prospects and risks

Future Outlook: According to Pompliano, there will be no major crash in Q1 2026 and it will be stable. Bitcoin may become a mature asset. Elon Musk's economic forecast (double-digit growth of the US economy) may also be a driving force. In the long term, the 300% upward trend may continue.

However, don't forget about the risks. Technical risks: network hacking and scaling issues (delayed transactions). Legal risks: Japan has strict regulations on virtual currencies, and you could suffer a tax miscalculation. Operational risks: even though volatility is low, sudden market fluctuations (e.g., macroeconomic shocks) can cause prices to fluctuate.

Joke: Even if you think of Bitcoin as a "grown-up former rebel," you might still have your old habits pop up from time to time. Don't underestimate the risks.

My Feelings, Then and Now

Bitcoin in 2025 will avoid a year-end rally and low volatility suggests stability in Q1. There's a lot to learn from Pompliano's analysis. It's important to look beyond short-term disappointments and take a long-term perspective. However, DYOR (Do Your Own Research) is the golden rule! The market is unpredictable, so be objective.

👨‍💻 Author: SnowJon (WEB3/AI Practitioner/Investor)

Based on the knowledge I gained from the University of Tokyo's Blockchain Innovation Course,
Researches and disseminates information on WEB3 and AI technology from a practical perspective.
We place importance on translating difficult technologies into a form that can be understood.

*AI is used as an auxiliary tool, and the author is responsible for final confirmation and responsibility of the content.

Reference links and sources

• Original news: Bitcoin Avoids Traditional Year-End Rally, Setting Stage for Q1 Stability According to Anthony Pompliano
• Cointelegraph: Bitcoin Stability May Signal No Drawdown In 2026: Pomp
• Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin's Weak End to 2025 Doesn't Mean Bearish Q1 2026, Says Expert
• CoinMarketCap: Bitcoin's Muted Year-End Price Rally May Prevent Q1 Crash
• AMBCrypto: Analysts' Bitcoin price predictions for Q1 2026