Bitcoin: Can it break through the $93,000 barrier? Underwater supply wall is key to breakout

👋 Everyone who is holding on, are you still breathing?

Well, the world of virtual currency is like a roller coaster every day. The news we will be covering this time is that Bitcoin's indexBreakoutAlthough it suggests"Underwater supply wall"The price$93,000According to a recent article from CryptoSlate, while spot market depth is recovering, thin order books and a breakdown in inter-exchange flows are keeping Bitcoin trapped in a range until Q1 2026. Simply put, there are signs of a rise, but a wall of selling is holding it back. Let's take a closer look! (Approximately 250 characters)

Bitcoin Indicators Point to Breakout, But Massive 'Underwater Supply Wall' Keeps Prices Below $93,000

Background and Issues

So, how is everyone's Bitcoin these days? I spilled my coffee while looking at the charts at a cafe (lol). The news this time is that the price of Bitcoin$93,000It points out exactly why it's difficult to break through.

A little background: Bitcoin is worth 1.5 trillion yen as of the end of 2025.$90,000It's fluctuating back and forth. The big breakout (sudden rise in price) that everyone is expecting is looming, but for some reason the ceiling is so low that it feels like you're going to hit your head.

The issue is,underwater supply wall" To put this in everyday terms, imagine that the stocks you bought at a high price suddenly crashed, and you're holding on to them because you don't want to cut your losses. In the case of Bitcoin, the people who bought at a high price$93,000They'll try to sell at a certain point, thinking, "I've finally reached the break-even point!" If there's a lot of this, the supply (selling) will stand in the way like a wall and hold down the price. It's like swimming in a pool and not being able to emerge from the water. It's a joke, but the hoarders are "suffocating" (lol).

Furthermore, thin order books and reduced flow of funds between exchanges are also a problem. This means that even a small sell-off can cause the price to drop sharply. It's said that this range-bound market may continue until Q1 2026.

The core of the technology

Now for the real story! Let's dig deep into the technical details of why an underwater supply wall is pinning the price down even though Bitcoin indicators are pointing to a breakout. We'll break down the jargon for you.

Click the image to enlarge.

first,"Bitcoin metricsWhat is "health"? It's like a health check for Bitcoin. It's a numerical indicator of trading volume, order book depth, and capital flows between exchanges. For example, a recovery in spot market depth is a good sign. To use an analogy, it's like the line at the pizza place getting longer, but for some reason the place won't open. No, more accurately: the demand is there, but there's a supply bottleneck.

The core is "underwater supply" This is not underwater, it's a "supply at a loss." The coins I bought at a high price are now cheap, so selling them would be a loss. But if it goes up to $93,000, there will be a pile of people trying to sell and run away. This is the "wall." I joke that when the price goes up, everyone will sell, just like a person on a diet will succumb to the temptation of cake (lol).

Furthermore, thin order books mean there are few buy or sell orders. It's like a hollow sandwich; it falls apart after a few bites. Collapsed inter-exchange flows mean there's less money moving between exchanges. When people stop moving coins, the market tends to stagnate.

Compare this to the traditional market. Visually check out the comparison chart!

This chart shows just how tricky this market is, and technically, Glassnode data backs this up.

Applications and Market Impact

So, how will this situation affect the market? Let's look at it from the perspective of developers and users. First, as users, those who hold Bitcoin will be tested for their patience in holding on. If the price stops sharply below $93,000, short-term trading will be risky. To use an analogy, it's like in love, where "if you wait, the sea will turn," but those who can't wait may be rejected (lol).

From a developer's perspective, how do we overcome this supply wall? DeFi apps may come up with ideas for wrapping Bitcoin to increase liquidity. The impact on the market as a whole could be volatile ETF flows and investors becoming cautious. Positively, breaking through the wall could trigger a major breakout! However, if the range continues through Q1 2026, attention may turn to altcoins.

Example of impact: The $3,000 rise on December 17th was quickly wiped out when spot selling caused prices to plummet. If this pattern is repeated, it will shake confidence in the market.

Actions by level

The focus here is not on "buying," but on understanding and experience! Beginners should start by looking at the order book using a chart tool. Try searching for "Bitcoin order book" on the free TradingView. You'll get a feel for what an underwater supply wall looks like.

If you're an intermediate trader, check out Glassnode's free indicators. Analyze why the price isn't moving even though the indicators are showing a breakout. Just kidding, calculate your risk to avoid hitting your head against the wall lol.

Action example: Move a small amount of Bitcoin in your wallet and experience the flow between exchanges. Overseas exchanges that are not legally protected are risky, so choose one that is in Japan.

Future prospects and risks

There are some bright spots in the outlook for the future. If the supply barrier is broken, some analysts say it could reach the $98,000-$104,000 zone. Increased ETF inflows from Q1 2026 onward could pave the way for a breakout.

But don't forget about the risks. Technical risk: If the order book remains thin, there is a sudden crash (it could fall to $64k-$70k). Legal risk: Cryptocurrency regulations are strict in Japan, so using an overseas exchange will void your protection. Operational risk: If underwater supply increases, the range market will prolong and you will lose opportunities. Always consider multiple scenarios.

On the positive side, the recovery in the indicators indicates a maturing market. However, bear market signals are also emerging, so be careful!

My Feelings, Then and Now

Bitcoin indicators are signaling a breakout, but an underwater supply wall is holding prices below $93,000. Understanding how the market works can be fun. But DYOR (do your own research) is key. Keep in mind the risks, as prices are unpredictable.

👨‍💻 Author: SnowJon (WEB3/AI Practitioner/Investor)

Based on the knowledge I gained from the University of Tokyo's Blockchain Innovation Course,
Researches and disseminates information on WEB3 and AI technology from a practical perspective.
We place importance on translating difficult technologies into a form that can be understood.

*AI is used as an auxiliary tool, and the author is responsible for final confirmation and responsibility of the content.

Reference links and sources

• Original news: Bitcoin metrics signal a breakout, but a massive “underwater” supply wall is secretly pinning prices below $93,000 (CryptoSlate)
• Glassnode official website: On-chain data analysis tool
• TradingView: View your order book with our free charting tool
• CoinMarketCap: Bitcoin market data