Hi, I'm John. Today I'll be explaining in simple terms how the US Treasury Department's TGA replenishment will affect the cryptocurrency market, based on Arthur Hayes' latest predictions.
The cryptocurrency market has been showing signs of calming down recently, and U.S. fiscal policy is behind this. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has pointed out that once the Treasury General Account (TGA) replenishment is nearly complete, liquidity will return to the market and the upward trend will resume. In this article, we will explain these factors in an easy-to-understand manner, even for beginners. Let's start with the basics.
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What is the Treasury General Account (TGA)? A basic review
TGA stands for Treasury General Account, and is like a government checking account held by the U.S. Treasury. By storing funds here, the government can manage its spending. In the past, as the TGA balance increased, funds were sucked out of the market, which tended to reduce liquidity (the amount of money circulating in the market). Currently, the U.S. Treasury has set a goal of replenishing the TGA to $8500 billion, which is also affecting the cryptocurrency market.
Simply put, during TGA replenishment, less money is being supplied to the private market, which tends to suppress the prices of risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, which is why experts like Arthur Hayes are paying attention to this.
Arthur Hayes' prediction: TGA replenishment complete, shifting to "up only" mode
In interviews and posts around September 20, 2025, Arthur Hayes stated that once the TGA replenishment is nearly complete, the market will return to an "up-only" trend. This is based on the view that once the replenishment is complete, the government will return funds to the private sector, increasing liquidity and pushing up cryptocurrency prices. Currently, the TGA balance has reached approximately $807 billion, approaching the target of $850 billion.
Hayes has pointed out in his previous blog and on Twitter that such fiscal policy will directly lead to volatility in virtual currencies. The replenishment is likely to be completed within the next few weeks, and market participants are closely watching this.
Past Cases: Looking Back at the Relationship Between the TGA and the Market
In the past, the cryptocurrency market temporarily stagnated around the time of the TGA replenishment around 2021. At the time, the US Treasury Department increased the TGA due to the debt ceiling issue, which led to a decrease in market liquidity and a correction in the price of Bitcoin. However, once the replenishment was completed, funds returned to the market and prices recovered.
Given this, it's possible that a similar pattern could be repeating itself today, and Hayes' analysis is based on these historical facts.
Current situation: market trends and latest data
As of September 21, 2025, the TGA replenishment is in its final stages. According to reports from Cointelegraph and CryptoSlate, Hayes predicted that "once the TGA reaches $850 billion, liquidity will flow into the private market and the cryptocurrency bull market will resume." Indeed, the market has been somewhat muted recently due to the liquidity drain caused by the replenishment, but expectations are rising as the replenishment is nearing completion.
Major currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are also susceptible to this influence. It is important for investors to take a long-term perspective while being mindful of short-term fluctuations.
Outlook: What will change with the restoration of liquidity?
Going forward, once the TGA replenishment is complete, funds are expected to be supplied to the market through government bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury. According to Hayes, this could put the cryptocurrency market into "up only" mode, accelerating price increases. However, this will depend on the overall economic situation, so we should avoid getting our hopes up.
Some experts are skeptical, arguing that the correlation between TGA and cryptocurrencies is weak. Some, such as Andre Dragosch of Bitwise, point out that the correlation with net liquidity is weak, so it is important to gather information from multiple angles.
Risks and countermeasures: working to be safe
Cryptocurrency investments are inherently subject to the risk of price fluctuations. Macroeconomic factors such as TGA are particularly difficult to predict and may result in losses. Invest at your own risk and with sufficient funds. Legally, comply with the regulations of each country, and for security, be sure to enable two-factor authentication.
- Check market news daily: Use trusted sites like CoinDesk and Cointelegraph.
- Diversify your investments: Don't rely too heavily on one currency, but broaden your portfolio.
- Don't be swayed by emotions: Even if an upward trend is predicted, make a calm decision.
If you keep these things in mind, you can participate in the market with confidence.
Summary: John's thoughts
This time, we talked about cryptocurrency market liquidity, focusing on Arthur Hayes' TGA forecast. It's interesting to note that the completion of replenishment could be a turning point for the market. For beginners, first get a grasp on the basics and then try practicing little by little. The market is constantly changing, so enjoy keeping up with the latest information.
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This article has been compiled and fact-checked by the author, based on the following original articles and public information:
- With the Treasury General Account refill almost done, 'up only can resume': Arthur Hayes
- Crypto ready for 'up only' mode once US TGA hits $850B target: Arthur Hayes
- Arthur Hayes Predicts Crypto Growth Post-US Treasury Refill
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