Bitcoin, where will the next "peak" be? Let's take a sneak peek at the future price!
Hello everyone! I'm John, your blockchain guide.
Have you heard the word "Bitcoin" a lot recently? Some of you may be thinking, "It sounds complicated..." or "Isn't it suspicious?" But don't worry! Today, I'll explain as simply as possible what everyone is wondering about, such as "How much will the price of Bitcoin rise from now on?" and "When will it peak (its highest point)?"
The price of Bitcoin can go up and down like a roller coaster. Let's take a look at the "cycle" of this movement and its "peak" together!
What are Bitcoin "cycles"?
The price of Bitcoin doesn't just keep rising or falling all the time. It's strange, isn't it?
Like a big wave, it tends to rise, drop a little after a while, and then the next big wave comes... and this movement tends to repeat.cycleThis is what we call "cyclical movements." This is also seen in stock prices.
The image may be similar to the cycle of seasons such as spring, summer, autumn and winter.
- spring: Prices start to creep up, just as new expectations warm you.
- summer: It's the hottest time of the year, and prices can spike and reach their peak (highest price).
- autumn: As the heat subsides, prices will slowly start to drop.
- winter: The idea is that prices will stabilize at a low level, like during a period of cold weather, and patiently wait for the next spring (the opportunity for an upswing).
One of the main reasons for this cycle isHalf-lifeThere is a Bitcoin-specific event called ".
What is half-life?
The halving is a rule that literally halves the amount of Bitcoin you receive as a reward when you dig up new Bitcoins (called mining) approximately once every four years. Because the amount of new coins coming onto the market decreases, it is said that Bitcoin's rarity (difficulty in obtaining) increases relatively, making it easier for the price to rise. It's similar to how if the number of popular items in stock at a store suddenly halves, the price of that item is more likely to rise! In fact, after past halvings, there has been a tendency for the price of Bitcoin to rise significantly.
How do you predict the future "top"?
Well, what everyone wants to know most is, "How hot will the next summer be, in other words, how high will prices peak?" Experts are trying to predict this in various ways.
- Historical Data Analysis: "The price movement was like this in the previous cycle, so I wonder if it will be like this this time too?" They refer to the price patterns (shapes of price movements) of past cycles. They say that "history repeats itself." They analyze past charts (graphs of price movements).
- Market sentiment: If there are many people who want to buy Bitcoin, the price will tend to rise, and if there are more people who think, "It's gone up enough, so I'll sell it and lock in my profits...", the price will tend to fall. This "market sentiment" is also an important hint. Topics on the news and social media also have an impact.
- New technologies and news: When new technology emerges that makes Bitcoin even more useful, or when a large company announces that they will use Bitcoin for payments or that they have bought a lot of Bitcoin, the price can rise in anticipation.
- Special calculation models: This may get a little technical, but some people use special formulas (called valuation models) to measure Bitcoin's fair value using various data such as the Bitcoin supply and the number of network users, and predict that "in theory, the price should be around this much!"
But it's important!
These predictions are merely predictions or possibilities. No one knows for sure what the future holds. Just like weather forecasts are not 100% accurate even with the latest technology. Unpredictable factors such as the overall economic situation (whether the economy is good or bad) or when a major event occurs in the world can also affect prices. That's why it's important not to accept information at face value, but to think of it as a reference point, thinking, "I see, that's one way of looking at it."
What will the "top" look like this time?
The title of the original article, "Where Could Bitcoin Peak This Cycle?", translates to "How far could this Bitcoin cycle peak?" in Japanese. It seems to be a discussion of the question, "Where will the top of this cycle be?" from various angles. (The original article is in English, so John will break it down for you here!)
The article will probably look at graphs of how the price of Bitcoin has grown in the past (for example, how it started out as a small amount and gradually grew into a larger amount), and will also take into account the increasing number of people and companies using Bitcoin. Although it will not be possible to say specifically how much it will cost, it may point out some possibilities.
For example, we can consider price peaks from this perspective:
- Will the number of people and situations using Bitcoin increase? Just like when smartphones became popular, the more people who use them, the greater the value and influence of the thing itself. If more people and companies around the world think, "This is convenient!" or "I want to have one!", it may have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin.
- The flow of money around the world: It seems that when the global economy is doing well or when other investment options (such as stocks and real estate) are not very attractive, money sometimes flows into Bitcoin as a new investment option.
- Institutional investors enter the market: Recently, I've heard that large companies and professional investors who manage a lot of money (called institutional investors) are starting to pay attention to Bitcoin. This kind of large capital flow may also affect the price.
However, as I mentioned before, it is really difficult to predict a specific figure for how high it will go. If various favorable conditions come together, it may grow dramatically, but if there is some bad news or a global event, it may not grow as much as expected. It's interesting precisely because no one can predict the future.
The important thing is not to make a decision based on just one piece of information. I recommend that you get involved with Bitcoin by listening to the opinions of many people and learning about Bitcoin and its underlying technology, the blockchain (a new mechanism for securely recording and managing information).
Message from John
The future price of Bitcoin is kind of exciting and dreamy! I can't help but hope that something amazing will happen. But at the same time, I can also understand the anxiety of wondering, "What if the price drops significantly?"
I think the most important thing is to understand at least a little of the basics about Bitcoin, such as "why is it attracting so much attention" and "what kind of new technology is it?" If you do that, I think you'll be able to look at the great potential of Bitcoin and blockchain technology in the long term, without getting too excited or upset about short-term price fluctuations. Let's take our time and learn!
This article is based on the following original articles and is summarized from the author's perspective:
Where Could Bitcoin Peak This Cycle?